Oct 31, 2024
WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE POLLS?!?
Pollsters are struggling to predict who might win the election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
- 16 minutes
The case.
For Kamala Harris,
the signs is clear as day.
If Republicans win come next week,
Donald Trump wins comes next week.
The signs all along
will have been obvious.
Okay.
All right.
That was CNN data analyst Harry Enten back
[00:00:17]
to back segments one just one day apart.
Saying that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
have signs of a surge.
I feel a little bit like Mr. Enten
might be covering his own.
You know what on all this, if I'm
if he wins, then there was a surge sign.
[00:00:36]
But if Kamala wins, there was also signs.
Don't look at me.
I think pollsters are pulling their hair
out just like we all are, as we are only a
few days away from the November election.
And let's just start with his
full explainer for why Kamala Harris
[00:00:52]
could pull off this win.
It has to do with her favorability.
And the number one sign
is that Harris, simply put,
is more popular than Donald Trump.
Her net favorable rating
is higher than Trump.
She's at minus two.
Trump is at minus seven.
I went all the way back since 1956
and looked at the polls.
[00:01:10]
Does the more popular candidate
usually win?
The answer is absolutely yes. 16 times the
more popular candidate has won only one
time, the less popular candidate has won.
I will note that was Donald Trump
back in 2016.
But of course, remember Hillary Clinton
was quite unpopular herself.
Democrats in special elections,
their performances the last two years.
[00:01:28]
What has happened?
We're looking at state legislative
and federal special elections.
On average, these Democrats have surpassed
Joe Biden's 2020 margin by two points
by two points.
And remember, Joe Biden won.
So the fact that these Democrats
have been doing better than Joe
[00:01:43]
Biden's been doing is a good sign.
In 2022, these metrics look awfully,
awfully similar.
In fact, slightly less believe
the country was on the right track,
slightly more approved of Joe Biden's job,
but very similar numbers here.
And remember, even though the top metrics
were bad for Democrats in 2022,
[00:02:00]
the white House party
did historically well in that midterm.
Okay, so that again, Harry Enten from CNN,
sort of like a very giving off,
like very overeager finance bro vibes
right there in all of his his predictions
[00:02:16]
of Kamala Harris.
So showing that Kamala Harris
is much more popular, but the one time
that the American public did vote for an
unpopular candidate, it was Donald Trump.
Oopsies.
Anyway, but here is his bid
and his for Donald Trump surging and why
[00:02:33]
he thinks maybe it could be Donald Trump.
Just 28% of Americans voters
think the country is going in the right
direction, is on the right track.
And I want you to put that
into a historical perspective for you.
Okay.
[00:02:48]
What's the average percentage
of the public that thinks that the country
is on the right track
when the incumbent party loses, its 25%.
That 25% looks an awful
lot like that 28% up there.
In fact, I went back through history.
There isn't a single time
in which 28% of the American public thinks
[00:03:06]
the country is going on the right track,
in which the incumbent party actually won.
They always lose.
For Kamala Harris to win,
she'd have to break history,
be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when
Biden's approval rating is way underwater.
Republicans have been registering voters
in big, huge numbers they
[00:03:22]
have been gaining in party registration
versus the Democrats in the swing states
with party registration.
We're talking Arizona.
I think it's a five point.
They've expanded their lead from five
points from where it was back in 2020.
How about Nevada?
Big Republican registrations there.
They like the early vote.
How about North Carolina.
[00:03:37]
Big Republican registration gains.
How about Pennsylvania?
We spoke about it before a few months ago.
Big Republican Party
registration gains versus where from
where they were four years ago.
Okay.
Well, that graphic doesn't
even have numbers on it.
That's just you're just
underlining states, my guy.
[00:03:53]
But that's cool.
I this is a hard job, people.
So he's saying, yes, there's a a swell
of registration of Republican voters,
according to, again, Harry Enten.
And that's why he thinks maybe
Donald Trump could pull this off.
Also, because Americans do not think
the country is going
[00:04:11]
in a good direction right now.
And generally that doesn't bode well
for the incumbent, the incumbent being the
Democratic Party, but again, not Biden.
So Biden's also not running.
So just a little pushback on that,
but more whiplash for you.
Republican strategist
Margaret Hoover, I believe, was on CNN.
[00:04:29]
And here she is saying that actually,
behind the scenes Republican operatives
she's speaking to are like,
it doesn't look good for us.
I have I have heard from Republicans that
there is concern at the Trump campaign
amongst the operatives that actually
[00:04:44]
really do know the political wherewithal
that that that the turnout and enthusiasm
numbers are not where they need to be.
Okay.
And then others jump in
or like nobody knows.
And then here's a communication
strategist, Frank Luntz.
He's also a pollster who says that.
[00:05:01]
Yeah. No no no no no no no.
Trump has the momentum. Take a look.
Biden may have tanked Harris's chances
of becoming the president because of his
comments about Trump voters being trash,
which he has said was a gaffe.
[00:05:17]
But she's also come out and said, no, no,
no, I'm going to give people a seat at the
table and not call them the enemy within.
Why do you argue
that this might be the big issue?
Because it reminds me so much of 2016,
and I think there are a lot
of similarities right now
between this campaign and that campaign.
[00:05:36]
The divisions in the country
were significant back then.
People didn't think Trump
had a chance back then.
He's been gaining
and gaining the momentum.
I don't know who's going to win.
I can't call it and nobody should
because statistically and polling and
[00:05:51]
focus groups, it is way too close to call.
However, the momentum is clearly
in my in what I see,
and what I hear is in his favor.
I mean, at this point, you know,
stick your finger in your mouth
and put it up to the wind.
[00:06:06]
Your guess is as good as anyone.
These are pollsters have been doing this
for decades who are like, nobody should
actually, guess the outcome of this junk.
I don't really know
who to trust on any of this.
I think obviously the numbers are better
than just hearing someone say like,
[00:06:25]
well, I heard people were worried.
No, I heard the the dump truck thing
was a really good, good move.
What do you make of it?
And how do you stay calm
in these final days?
So, well, first of all, I have a battle
plan in case either one of them wins
[00:06:41]
and we're going to do a populist revolt.
So come watch us. Hell, yeah.
Yeah, it's going to come watch us
on Election day.
Let's launch
that populist revolt together.
But now, in terms of who's going to win,
you know, I like to think
that I'm pretty good at this.
[00:06:57]
And my answer is, right now we've got 4
or 5 days left before the election.
I have no idea. Okay.
And so, look, I don't think Harry Enten
and other pundits are covering their ass.
I think they genuinely are right
that it is tied and not just tied.
[00:07:14]
It's confusing.
So what I mean by that is the numbers
keep contradicting themselves.
Harry did a pretty good job
of explaining it there, and those are two
big metrics I also look at in elections.
You know, who is the country
going in the right direction or not?
And clearly the Democrats
are not winning on that one.
[00:07:32]
So that's a big problem for Kamala Harris.
But then, you know,
who do you which candidate do you approve
of that is normally very, very telling.
And the Democrats are winning on that one.
So color me confused.
So the one that usually tells you who's
going to win is especially in the last ten
[00:07:52]
years, is who's the change candidate.
And on that one they keep flip flopping,
right.
She's the change candidate.
He's the change candidate.
She's the change candidate.
So the country hasn't made up its mind.
It's I've never seen
an election like this.
It doesn't mean that it's going to be
razor thin in the Electoral College.
[00:08:09]
I'll get back to that in a second.
There could still be
a perceived blowout, but.
But right now, if any pundit is
telling you or pollsters telling you,
oh, I know for sure who's going to win,
they're lying.
Because all the professionals, all the
guys who are the best at this, including,
[00:08:25]
yes, begrudgingly, Frank Luntz and Nate
Silver are all going, I don't know.
I mean, I can give you more numbers.
So and more indications.
So, for example, as you saw there,
Margaret Hoover is saying
[00:08:40]
the Trump campaign slight panic
about their internal polling.
Then when you go to Kamala Harris side,
they've pulled their ads
from North Carolina, which means
that they that nine out of ten times,
that means they're giving up
because their internal polling is showing
[00:08:57]
that they're going to lose North Carolina.
And in Nevada, the local reporters
are saying rural turnout, more
likely to be Trump, etc., is overwhelming.
So now Nevada looks really bad
for Democrats.
On the other hand,
why are the Trump guys panicking
[00:09:12]
about their internal poll numbers?
I, you know, and look,
Nevada and North Carolina etc.
Are probably not going to settle this.
What is very, very likely going to settle
this is the three blue wall states of
Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin.
And again, every day that I look, there's
a new poll with a new leader for a little.
[00:09:30]
And the reason Luntz, me, Nate Silver,
whoever else you want to put in that
bucket have all said in the last week
or so, week to ten days, it's tied.
But our intuition As says Trump,
because the momentum is because
the polls were headed in that direction
[00:09:49]
as they're wobbly and wavering there
a little bit wobbling towards Trump
in the last two weeks or so.
But now there's some new polls out going
in Harris's direction, and maybe it's
because of all the crazy things that Trump
and his allies have said recently,
[00:10:05]
and which goes to the point
that I've been making throughout, which is
Trump loves to juggle hand grenades.
So he dropped a couple of them recently.
And by the way, this thing's not over.
I mean, as you're going to find out later
in today's show, Rudy Giuliani
saying the Haitians, you know, should,
should have never come out of the jungle.
[00:10:22]
Tucker Carlson saying he was attacked
by demons in the middle of the night.
I mean, like,
there's no end to their madness.
So could they punch themselves enough
times in the face to cost themselves
a super close election at the end?
Yes. So there's no way of knowing.
I'll tell you who could make
all the difference in a second.
[00:10:37]
But so far.
Are you with me on that, Frannie?
- Does that make sense?
- I mean, yeah, I agree with you.
I just I disagree with Frank Luntz
saying that this is exactly like 2016
in terms of underestimating Trump.
I don't think that people
are underestimating Trump
this time around at all.
[00:10:54]
I think that we are taking Trump
incredibly seriously, far more seriously
than honestly he takes himself.
I think people are very sober about that
and what's so upsetting, and we're going
to get into maybe why is that?
Kamala Harris was clearly
the change candidate.
[00:11:09]
Of course she was a change candidate
jumps in when Biden's, you know,
two decrepit and genocidal.
The you know, keep running.
And yeah, of course she's a change
candidate, but she's cozied up
to some of his worst policies and she
hasn't embraced some of his best policies,
[00:11:24]
and she hasn't really staked out her own,
you know, her own vision for a country
that is different than Trump.
Trump's got a vision.
We got mass deportations.
You know, we got abolishing
the Department of Ed. We've got no
trans of gender affirming care.
[00:11:40]
Like all the kinds of harrowing visions
that Donald Trump has and that, you know,
that means some of it's not
much of a difference considering people
can't get abortions in so many states.
But a lot of it is like, hey,
there's a twisted little vision there.
So I just think it was incredible
that somehow at this late stage,
[00:11:59]
you could still imagine that Kamala Harris
wouldn't be the change candidate.
I still think she is.
But also I'm biased
towards democracy and stuff.
So I think that that is just more
of a disappointment on my end.
[00:12:15]
But I don't think that we are starry eyed
about Kamala Harris winning.
No one is cavalier about this.
And but the other thing that does
feel like 2016, Jake, is like,
you know, Kamala Harris has sort of said
bye bye to the progressive base.
It's more of a like,
I got this, I don't need you.
[00:12:32]
Me and Liz Cheney are going to ride
out with, you know, the undecided voters
and anyone who likes Liz Cheney and the
Cheney family still, which is nobody.
So there is that vibe that I've gotten
from this campaign so far.
Yeah, totally. So let me build on that.
So look, if you're looking at these
two awful candidates, Trump and Biden,
[00:12:50]
that the country didn't want,
like 70% of the country wanted different
candidates, then obviously Kamala Harris
is a change candidate.
But if you're looking to change
from the establishment, which most people
in the country want, well then she's
not really the change candidate
because she's much more establishment now.
Trump's not. Trump is anti-establishment.
[00:13:07]
It doesn't really mean
he's a real populist.
He's just looking out for himself.
But that leans in his favor.
When you're looking at how does
the country feel about change.
And so, so what's going
to happen at the end and how is
this thing going to get decided?
Look, first of all, I want you
to understand that as close as it is now
[00:13:25]
and as unclear as it is now,
all Trump has to do is get like a one and
a half point lead in the blue wall states.
And next thing you know,
he sweeps all the swing states because
that's what that's what would happen.
And then it looks like
an electoral college blowout.
[00:13:41]
And then of course, they'll frame that
as a mandate, a blowout, etc..
But the Electoral College is so dumb.
If you win it by a lot,
it doesn't really mean anything.
So I mean Biden won by a decent number
in terms of the electoral count
and certainly in the popular vote.
But he actually in reality
only won the election by 43,000 votes
[00:14:01]
in three swing states.
So what do you mean by a close election?
So he could still be a perceived blowout,
and a real blowout would be
if Trump won the popular vote.
Pause to note how funny that sentence is.
Okay, our system is so insane that
if a Republican wins the popular vote,
[00:14:21]
that's considered a blowout.
I mean, so we expect a Republican
to lose the popular vote
in a democracy every time,
but still win the Electoral College
and the presidency half the time,
or more than half the time,
so the system is totally screwed.
[00:14:36]
But that would be that would be
a surprising result if he won the
popular vote, and it would mean he'd win
the Electoral College by a lot.
Okay, finally, the key to victory
is at this point, this is not a thing
that usually makes a difference,
even though it's and it's and I love it
and I want it to be true,
[00:14:51]
but it's usually the most overhyped thing.
Get out the vote, right.
Those campaigns, the door knocking, etc..
Well good news,
this is the one campaign where it matters.
So go and get out the vote
on whichever side you're on,
because that's what's going to make
a difference almost for sure.
[00:15:08]
And finally, the undecided voters,
not the undecided.
Sorry, the unlikely voters, the ones
that the polling is not picking up.
Did they go towards Trump historically?
Yes, definitely. 2016 and even in 2020,
in surprising fashion.
[00:15:24]
But in 2022 and 2023, they went
to the Democrats because of abortion.
- So who's got more unlikely voters?
- And hence.
Its look.
If Kamala Harris loses,
she has no one to blame but herself.
I think she ran a very subpar campaign
for most of the same reasons
[00:15:41]
that Francesca just laid out.
But if she wins, it will definitely be
because it Army of women showed up
that people didn't expect
and they carried her to victory.
Yeah. And I just want to just double down.
[00:15:56]
There's one more weekend to go and yeah,
if you want to knock doors
for your candidate, go ahead and do that.
Honestly, every little bit
does indeed help.
And there's some awesome grassroots
organizations that are doing good work
and they're connected to the communities.
They're not just parachuting in, to try
and get their vote at the last minute.
[00:16:14]
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