Take a look here. We asked people whether they have a favorable view of the candidate or not before the debate. Walz was at a plus 14, so if you take his favorable minus his unfavorable, he was at a positive 14. After the debate he's at plus 37. And look at Vance. [00:00:17] He did a ton of progress on his favorable ratings. We know he's been one of the most unpopular vice presidential picks out of the gate. But look at the good he did himself here. He went from a -22 favorable rating before the debate with this group [00:00:32] of debate watchers to a minus three. But again, this group of debate watchers is about five percentage points more Democratic overall than the overall registered voter population would be. Well, that was some of the analysis following the vice presidential debate [00:00:51] of the 2024 election cycle, of course, between JD Vance and Tim Walz. Real quick, before I get to some more of the analysis, very curious what you thought of what we just watched, John. I mean, I think there's a lot of different things that you can hope to accomplish from a debate. [00:01:07] The top line thing that a lot of people focus on is who won? But what does that even mean? You can mean a lot of different things by who won. I think across most of the answers I last night and I stand by it would give a narrow win to JD Vance. But one thing you can do, and honestly to the individual candidate long term might [00:01:25] be the most important part, is how does it change people's opinion of you either? In that clip they were talking about sort of raw favorability, and then they also tracked, you know, do you think that this person is qualified to be president if necessary? Changing those numbers might not immediately change the overall [00:01:41] polling numbers for the presidency. But they can also but it still can be a very important thing long term for the candidate. Yeah, I agree with you on that. So let's get into some more of the polling and what voters were saying after the VP debate. So when you look at the post-debate polls, voters seem kind of split actually [00:01:59] on who did better, whose performance was better, suggesting that Americans actually came away with kind. Of liking both politicians, which is surprising. And look, before I get into the details and the numbers, I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that it was a breath of fresh air [00:02:16] to see two individuals who disagree with with one another act like adults. You know what I mean? And not like, immediately devolve into ridiculous, childish, childish name calling and stuff like that. So I think that the debate was much more substantive than what we got [00:02:33] in the presidential debate. And I think we know why. We know what the common you know, the lowest common denominator was in the presidential presidential debate. Now, with that in mind, let's talk a little bit about what the polls are saying about the VP debate. According to a poll conducted by CBS and YouGov, 42% of viewers said [00:02:51] that Vance won the debate versus 41% who said Walz was the winner. 17% of viewers said the debate was a tie. So, I mean, that's pretty much everyone seems to think it was like the outcome seems to have been a tie. [00:03:08] Okay. Then you have. CNN's poll resulted in a very similar result, with 51% of viewers hailing Vance as the winner, versus 49% for walls. Wallace's performance fell short of viewer expectations, as 54% had predicted [00:03:23] a Wallace victory before the debate versus just 45% for Vance. It's interesting that the prediction prior to the VP debate was that walls was going to win. And I say that's interesting because, you know, look, I obviously prefer walls, and I think walls is a more likable person overall. [00:03:43] But I also know that J.D. Vance, can come across as polished, prepared. You know, I disagree with J.D. Vance on a lot of things, but in terms of optics and the way he presents himself, I just I had a feeling that he was going to do well. [00:03:59] Right. Like his performance was going to be okay. Asked who won Tuesday's debate? Voters were split 5050 over whether it was J.D. Vance or Tim Walz, according to a Politico Focaldata snap poll of likely voters. So it was like essentially a tie, right? [00:04:16] And also, keep in mind, and I think you said this last night, John, as we were covering the debate live, I, I don't think VP debates really move the needle in the election. The only thing that the VP debates can do is cause a lot of harm, right? [00:04:33] So the advice going in is do no harm. You know, just don't blow it and everything will be okay. And I think mission accomplished accomplished for both of the candidates. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I think that there were, you know, a couple of moments that maybe could break through as examples of doing some harm. [00:04:50] I mean, there was there's the possibility that the the refusing to answer who won the 2020 election was a moment and by itself isn't devastating. But like Vance was asked about it today and he once again refused to answer. So he's now creating a thing that every reporter is going to feel like, well, [00:05:09] I got to be the latest one to ask him. And if it just becomes this ongoing thing where he refuses to acknowledge reality, then that that looks really bad for him. There could be a similar thing maybe for for Tim Walz, like questions about the Tiananmen Square thing. That was a really awkward moment. And, you know, I saw like one op ed that was saying, like the the idea that we had [00:05:28] before Tim Walz became the VP, that he's this like media marvel, like this is kind of, you know, it's creating a few cracks in that maybe, maybe, maybe it was just that at that time on those outlets, he was doing well. Maybe he's not the perfect political communicator. Again, some of these early evaluations coming out of the debate, I think might [00:05:46] be a bit that might go a bit too far. But yeah, I think overall it's unlikely to change much. They rarely do. And the strategies that both of the candidates were pursuing was was very safe. To your point earlier about, you know, people expecting that Walz would win. [00:06:02] I think like Brett, I talked to Brett earlier and he said JD Vance is an Ivy League trained lawyer. He damn well better win a debate, which I think is a good point. Like, that's what they're trained to do. But I think if you assumed and I assumed that Wallace might win, it's not necessarily because I think Wallace is a great debater. [00:06:20] Famously, when he was chosen, he said he's not a good debater. It was more that there's a lot of material you could use against Vance. You could bring up the childless cat ladies and the raising taxes on people without kids and all. On and on and on the crazy things that he said. But the strategy was so safe that walls didn't really do that. [00:06:39] And there was also the chance that Vance might, like Trump might have told him, like, you got to say, Haitians are eating cats. Like you got to say this crazy thing and that the strategy wasn't like that. So I think there was some like meta contextual things that led people to think Wallace could win beyond just walls is a great debater. [00:06:56] Yeah, that's a really good point. And, you know, CBS also spoke to some of the voters in Michigan after the debate. And let's take a look at what they had to say. I'll give you information about where they lean politically. After we watch, take a look. [00:07:11] Raise your hand if you feel like Senator JD Vance won this debate. And then two people feel like, Governor Walz won the debate. So you said that you felt like JD Vance articulated his arguments the best. [00:07:28] Bill. Talk to us a little bit about that. Yeah. He was a very smooth. Very smooth talker. Yes. He was. Eric, what about you? I know you said you felt. Yeah. I also agree that JD Vance, I think, was a smooth talker. The thing that I appreciated about Governor Walz is that I felt [00:07:43] like he did answer more of the questions, like with actually with data points and like with evidence. - So I appreciated that perspective. - Okay. So when it comes to this particular panel and by the way, like obviously this is all anecdotal, right? That's not a poll that's not a representative sample of voters. [00:08:01] But still it's interesting to hear actual voters and what their thoughts were like ordinary people and what their thoughts were after the debate. And so this panel had Republicans and Democrats in it, but leaned slightly conservative. Two had already decided that they were going to vote for Harris. [00:08:17] Two decided that they're going to vote for Trump, and one was a Republican debating whether or not to vote, and one was an undecided Nikki Haley supporter. So thoughts on what you heard from the voters in that clip, John? [00:08:32] Yeah. I think, you're totally right that it's just anecdotal, but it is supposed to give us a window into what regular people are like a variety of sorts. And I think that those two answers we saw are like exactly what those groups of people are supposed to feel like. [00:08:49] Maybe someone who's a little bit more, you know, like favorable towards the Republicans is just supposed to come out and be like, yeah, that was smooth. Like, and they may not say it, but what they mean is, in comparison to Donald Trump, they're not supposed to come away from Vance. Like, I'm glad that he talked about the app at the border like they're [00:09:06] supposed to just get an impression that, oh, he's Always impressive, I guess. And, you know, a lot of voters aren't that it's not that difficult to get them to have that impression. A lot of them think that Trump is impressive. So it was just supposed to be like, it's a vibe that you're trying to get them to think of. And then with the second guy that answered, like, there, there are the [00:09:22] voters that are perhaps like, you know, that they're a little bit more focused on the wonky stuff and you want to, you know, deliver your message strongly, but also make clear that you know, you're following the science or whatever. Like, I think that the two sides like that's exactly [00:09:37] who they're trying to appeal to. So it's fascinating that those are the two that were chosen in the focus group to actually respond. Yeah, yeah. Look. NBC news did something similar. They took some time to speak with ordinary voters, a similar group of Pennsylvania voters in this case, but they actually did not agree that Vance won the debate. [00:09:58] To be clear, some of you had made up your minds going into the debate. We had two really very much pro Harris. You were probably for Harris. You guys were a little you were more unsure. Onshore. And then we had two people who were really considering Donald. Trump, including Brian and Brian. I want to go to you because. [00:10:14] It's been fascinating to get your read on what happened tonight. Because you seemed like you went in sort of wanting to like J.D. Vance and thinking about Trump. If you were going to say who won tonight, I would say that that Tim Walz won. I wonder. Would everybody say that Walz won this debate show of hands? [00:10:32] No pressure. Okay. Not sure. Claire. - Claire, you know what. - It means to win a debate. You know what my favorite person in this entire story is? That very last woman who said. [00:10:48] Yeah, what does it even mean to win the debate? Look, I think that your own personal biases usually play a role, right? Like, whether you want to admit it or not, you know, you're going to want to root for your preferred candidate. But also, how do we measure it, right? [00:11:04] Like, I think looking at the polling can measure it, but also what kind of impact is it really going to have on the election. Like that's the part that really stands out to me because we get all excited about the debates. We put a lot of weight behind it, but overall, I don't think debates really move the needle that much. They could cause a lot of harm to a candidate, [00:11:21] as we learned with Biden, obviously. But, in the end, yeah, I a lot of people judge based on vibes. I think confidence really matters. Tim Walz being nervous in the very beginning of the VP debate wasn't great, [00:11:37] but he loosened up and then by the end he was freaking killing it. So those are my thoughts, you know? And at the end of the day, the VP really doesn't do anything. The only time the VP becomes relevant is if something happens to the president. [00:11:53] But overall, it was a perfectly fine debate. I liked that it was civil. I liked that it was a little bit boring. And I want more of that. I want boring, substantive debates. Yeah, I would like a little bit less lying, but I like those two things [00:12:10] that you talked about. And to how much the VP matters. We learned that the VP only matters if something happens to the president, as you said. And what happens is the president can be literally that he's not running anymore. And now the VP is and suddenly the VP was always in charge of everything. [00:12:26] And obviously not a single one of these Republicans thinks that. But it's convenient, I guess, to pretend. Yeah. And I mean, if you think about that equation, then the VP for Trump matters way more. I mean, Trump's up there in age. You never know. [00:12:43] He seems healthy, but you never know he's up there in age. Let's just put it that way. And so the possibility of JD Vance taking his place if God forbid, something happens to Trump is is a reality. It's a possibility. - So something to keep in mind. - Well, yeah. [00:12:59] And and bear in mind he'll be keeping in mind JD Vance, I'm sure, would like to become the VP right now and then run in four years and win or whatever. That's best case scenario for, JD Vance. Well, all of that happening. And his wife not leaving him for all that he's revealed of himself since he became VP nominee. [00:13:14] That's the best case scenario. But another perfectly fine scenario is Trump loses and in four years he runs, you know, and wins. Then, like, he's young, he's like 40 years old or whatever. Like he's got plenty of time in a cycle or two to run. And one of the ways that you set that up is by appearing to have had a good debate. [00:13:34] People will remember that to some extent four years later, and so this could be good for him either way. Honestly, my personal opinion is that J.D. Vance's chances of having a smooth presidential run are greatly enhanced if Trump loses. [00:13:52] The reason why I say that is because, look, we know how Trump is, and we know that he demands extreme loyalty. And by the way, as someone who scores high in loyalty when it comes to moral intuitions, like he goes too far for me, like way too far, right. [00:14:08] Like he wants people to support him even when he's doing really terrible things that are harmful to them. And so there's some chance that if Trump were to win and if, you know, J.D. Vance is his VP, like, is he going to nod his head and go along with everything that Trump wants? [00:14:25] He might. That could either get him in a lot of trouble, potentially with the law if things play out the way they did in Trump's first term, or he will push back against Trump. And we all know what happens when, you know, cabinet members decide not to go along with everything Trump wants. [00:14:41] So I don't know if J.D. Vance is really, like, engaging in this, like, cynical ploy to eventually make his way to the white House. I think his chances are greater if he, and Donald Trump lose in this election cycle. - That's my thoughts. - Hey, thanks for watching the video. [00:14:58] We really appreciate it, guys, and we appreciate it if you become members because that allows us to be independent, honest, progressive, all the things that you don't get from corporate media and all of that is because of you guys. Hit the join button below and become one of us. Become a young Turk.